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Short Communication Volume 6 Issue 4
Cancer: the growing monster in Egypt
Amal S Ibrahim,1
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Nabiel Nazmi1
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1National Cancer Institute, Egypt
2Department of Biostatistics and Cancer Epidemiology, South Egypt Cancer Institute, Egypt
Correspondence: Amal S. Ibrahim, MD, Dr. PH, Professor of Epidemiology, National Cancer Institute, Cairo University, Director, National Cancer registry program, Egypt
Received: August 07, 2016 | Published: December 22, 2016
Citation: Ibrahim AS, Nazmi N. Cancer: the growing monster in Egypt. J Cancer Prev Curr Res. 2016;6(4):515-516. DOI: 10.15406/jcpcr.2016.06.00217
Short communication
The magnitude of the cancer problem remained unknown until very recently when Egypt national cancer registry program published its results in 2014, after 10years of population-based registration.1 The published incidence data replaced the hospital-based proportions that wouldn’t help to estimate magnitude of the problem.2 The estimated crude incidence of cancer for 2013 was 115.7/100,000 males and 11o.3/100,000 females. The estimated incident cases were 114,985 in 2013. Assuming that the age specific incidence rates would not change up to 2050; the number of incident cases would increase to 341,169 due to population growth by 160% and aging of the population as shown in the corresponding population pyramids. The main cause of increase was attributed to demographic change rather than population growth. This 3-fold increase varied by site of tumor as shown in the table above. For the most common sites, increase in prostate cancer was highest for prostate cancer (424%) and lowest for breast cancer (253%). This expected increase by site would be reflected on control activities for early detection of breast and other cancers. Control of HCV infection would affect liver cancer.3 Plans of control of HCV aim at eradication of the infection that would start to be effective by 2018. Interestingly, childhood cancer would increase to 120%; giving chance for proper planning for equity of distribution of services that are currently mainly located in Cairo (Figures 1-7).
Figure 1 Demographic background of cancer in Egypt.
Figure 2 Estimated incident cancer cu0 ases.
Figure 3 Estimated number of cases in Egypt (2013-2050) and causes of the increase in cases.
Figure 4 Percentage increase in incident cancer cases 2013 and 2050.
Figure 5Increase infrequent cancer sites in 2050 relative to 2015.
Figure 6 Age-specific incidence rate/100000 populations.
Figure 7 Magnitude of the problem.
Acknowledgments
None.
Conflicts of interest
Authors declare there are no conflicts of interest.
References
- Ibrahim AS, Khaled HM, Mikhail NN, et al. Cancer incidence in egypt: results of the national population-based cancer registry program. J Cancer Epidemiol. 2014;2014:437971.
- Ibrahim AS, Mikhail NNH. The Evolution of Cancer Registration in Egypt: From Proportions to Population-based Incidence Rates. SECI Oncology. 2015;2015:4.
- Ezzat S, Abdel-Hamid M, Eissa SA, et al. Associations of pesticides, HCV, HBV, and hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt. Int J Hyg Environ Health. 2005;208(5):329‒339.
©2016 Ibrahim, et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and build upon your work non-commercially.