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Biometrics & Biostatistics International Journal

Research Article Volume 12 Issue 3

Location and scale under exchangeable errors

DR Jensen

Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, USA

Correspondence: DR Jensen, Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, USA

Received: May 23, 2023 | Published: June 29, 2023

Citation: Jensen DR. Location and scale under exchangeable errors. Biom Biostat Int J. 2023;12(3):81-86. DOI: 10.15406/bbij.2023.12.00388

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Abstract

Classical multivariate analysis rests on observations Y(n×k)Y(n×k)  having n>kn>k  mutually independent rows, with dispersion matrix as a direct product V(Y)=InΣV(Y)=InΣ , supported in turn by a rich literature. That independence may fail is modeled here on taking the rows of YY  to be exchangeably dependent such that V(Υ)=ΩΣV(Υ)=ΩΣ  where exchangeability rests on the choice for Ω(n×n)Ω(n×n) . Three choices are considered; each interjects additional parameters into the model; and it remains to ask which, if any, of findings widely known under independence, might apply also under exchangeable dependence. Conventional inferences for the location and scale parameters (μ,Σ)  are reconsidered. Excluding μ  these are found to carry over in large part to include the exchangeable errors of this study.

AMS subject classification: 62E15, 62H15, 62J20

Keywords: exchangeable matrix errors, recovered properties, location and scale parameters

Introduction

The model {Y=1nμ+}  asserts the n rows of Y(n×k)  to be k –dimensional responses, having location parameters μ=[μ1,μ2,...μk]  where 1n=[1,1,....1]  and with ε(n×k)  as an array of random errors. Conventional analysts take the n  rows of Y to be mutually independent and Gaussian, so that V(Y)=InΣ . To the contrary, independence often fails; venues include multiple time series, econometrics, and empirical adjustments that induce dependencies among the adjusted responses, as in references1,2 for calibrated data. Accordingly, it is instructive to replace independence among rows by exchangeable dependence, on letting V(Υ)=ΩΣ  where exchangeably rests on the choice for Ω(n×n) .

In short, the basic foundations remain to be reworked, as in this study with regard to independence. Specifically, with n  as Euclidean n –space and Fn×k  the real matrices of order (n×k)  then the distribution (Y)  for Yn  is said to be exchangeable provided that (PnY)=(Y)  for every Pnn  the (n×n)  permutation group, a concept due to Johnson.3 In this study exchangeable errors on Fn×k  are identified; their use is seen to offer a rich class of alternatives to independence. A brief survey follows.

Selected classes of exchangeable errors on Fn×k  are studied, as are moments for the model M . The focus here centers on (μ,Σ)  as the conventional location/scale parameters. But since additional parameters are injected into the model on requiring that it should be exchangeable, it is essential to identify those properties, if any, which do carry over to include exchangeable errors.

Preliminaries

Notation

 Identify n  and Fn×k  as stated, with S+n  as the symmetric, positive definite matrices of order (n×n) . Vectors and matrices are in bold type, with {A,A1,tr(A),and|A|}  as the transpose, inverse, trace, and determinant of A . The unit vector in n  is 1n=[1,1,....1] ; In  is the (n×n)  identity; Jn=1n1 n and Diag (A1 . . . ,Ak)  is block–diagonal. Take Ch(A)=[α1αn> 0]  to be the eigenvalues of AS+n . The condition number of AS+n  is Cnd(A)=α1/αn . For A(n×n)  and B(k×k) , their direct product is AB=[aijB]  of order (nk×nk) , and a g –inverse of AFn×k  is AFk×n  such that AAA=A .

Random arrays

 Consider YFn×k  to be random, with {(Y),E(Y),V(Y)}  as its law of distribution, its expected values in Fn×k , and its dispersion matrix in S+nk  under moments of first and second orders. Moreover, for displaying the elements of V(Y)=Xi(nk×nk) , the matrix Y=[Y1,Y2. ,Yn]  of order (n×k)  is taken row–wise through the mapping J(Y)=[Y'1,Y2',Yn']  of order (nk×1)  as in the following from Jensen DR, et al.4

Proposition 1 i. For (nk×1) , then V(Y)  is arrayed as V(Y)=Xi , often of the form Xi=ΩΣ  with elements {Ω(n×n),Σ(k×k)} ;

  1. Then for row Yi of Y  the element {V(Yi)=ωiiΣ}  is on the diagonal of Xi , and {Cov(Yi,Yj)=ωijΣ}  is off the diagonal;

 iii. For  V(Z)=ΩΣ  and fixed (A,B) ,then V(A'ZB)=A'ΩAB'ΣB .

Exchangeable arrays trace to Johnson3 as noted, and since have a rich history. Any mixture of independent, identically distributed (iid)  variables in n  is exchangeable; a converse of Finetti B5 is that elements of {Y1,Y2,Y3,}  if exchangeable, are conditionally iid  given some Z1 . Matrix arrays are considered next; refer also to Aldous.6

Definition 1

  1. The distribution of YFn×k is said to be left–exchangeable provided that (Y)=(PnY)  for every Pnn ;
  2. (Y) is right–exchangeable provided that (Y)=(YQk) for every Qkk .

Essential properties may be listed as follow.

Lemma 1 Take yn  with V(y)=Ω , and YFn×k  with V(Υ)=ΩΣ.

  1. Let (y) be exchangeable on n ; then Ω=Pn'ΩPn  for every Pnn ,i.e. Ω is invariant under Pn  acting by congruence;
  2. Let (Y) be left–exchangeable ; then Ω=Pn'ΩPn  for every Pnn ;
  3. Let (Y) be right–exchangeable; then Σ=Qk'ΣQk  for every Qkk .

 Proof. Clearly (y)=(Pn'y)  implies Ω=Pn'ΩPn  for every Pnn , to give conclusion (i). Conclusions (ii) and (iii) follow as in Definition 1(iii), namely, V(Pn'YQk)=Pn'ΩPnQk'ΣQk ; and applying Conclusion (i) in succession to  {YPnY}  and {YYQk} .

Classes of exchangeable errors

 An early version having exchangeable rows on Fn×k  is

V(Y)=[I n(ΓΣ)+J nΣ;[(ΓΣ),Σ]S+k , identified in7 as an Exchangeable General Linear Model. This is a block–partitioned version of an equicorrelation matrix, but differing from matrices of type V(Υ)=ΩΣ  as considered here and listed in Table 1.

Remark 1 Given Ω(γ,λ) , then Ω(ρ)=[(1ρ)I n+ρJ n]  follows on taking λ=θ1n and {γ=(1ρ),2θ=ρ} .

 Essential properties may be summarized as follow.

Theorem 1 Consider the classes {C=1n,2n,3n}  of Table 1, together with conditions Φi  for Ωi  to be positive definite. Then

  1. The classes are closed under congruence by Pn , i.e. for ΩiH1n(Ωi) , the matrices satisfy {Pn'ΩiPnin(Ωi)} , for each Pnn ;
  2. For each {in(Ωi)} , the conditions Φi()  that Ωiin(Ωi)  be positive definite, are identical for all elements of the classes C  
  3. Consider λ=λ0 to be fixed as are τ1  and τ2 . Corresponding to 2n(Ω)  is an equivalent subclass, namely 2 , as given by

 {2=[γI n+1  nλ0'Pn'+Pnλ01  n'];Pnn}  ,

 having identical values for τ1  and τ2 , consisting in number as n!  provided that elements of  are distinct.

Proof (i) The conditions Φ1  of Table 1 are from Theorem 2 of Jensen DR8; Φ2 follows step–by–step on modifying that proof exclusive of ˉλ ; and Φ3  is given in Halperin M.9 (ii) Closure properties for 1n  and 2n  follow with A(λ)=1  nλ'+λ1  n'  since [I n+A(λ)][I n+A(θ)]1n  and

[γI n+A(λ)][γI n+A(θ)]2n with θ=Pn'λ , and similarly 3n  reproduces itself. Conclusion (iii) holds for H2n(Ω)  since τ1  and τ2  are invariant under permutations of λ0 , and the members of 2  clearly are generated from all n!  permutations of the elements of λ0  if distinct.

Table 1 identifies additional parameters as required to achieve exchangeability. It is essential to examine the manner in which these may affect outcomes of the analysis, specifically, through the singular joint distribution of  [ˆμ,R]  as

functions of Υ .

Repeated use is made of V(A'Y)=A'ΩA  from Proposition 1(iii). In addition, PX0=[I n1n1  n1  n'] is the idempotent projection operator onto the error span of the model .

Theorem 2 Given (Y){Nn×k(1  nμ;ΩΣ)} , consider  under the classes C of Table 1. Then

  1. E[ˆμ,R]=[μ,0] for each inC ;
  2. The joint dispersion matrices V(ˆμ,R) of order (n+1)  under the Table 1 classes are given respectively by

            Ψ(λ)                    Ψ(γ,λ)                             Ψ(ρ)  

[1n+ˉλλ'PX0PX0λPX0];[γn+2ˉλλ'PX0PX0λγPX0][1+(n1)ρn00(1ρ)PX0]   (1)

Proof Conclusion (i) follows from E(ˆμ)=1n1  n'E(Y)=1n1  n'[1  nμ]=μ , and E(R)=0  by parallel arguments. Next let L'=[L1',L2']=[1n1  n',PX0] , so that L'Y=[ˆμ,R]  and {V(L'Y)=L'ΩiLΣ}(**)  with Ωi  as in Table 1. Substituting these in succession into expression (**)  gives the displayed matrices (1) for the classes {1n,2n,3n} , respectively.

Class

Ωi  

Φi()  

 Source

1n  

Ω(λ)=[In+1nλ+λ1nˉλJn]  

{τ1>nτ21}  

 Jensen8

2n  

Ω(γ,λ)=[γIn+1nλ+λ1n)]  

{γ>[(nλλ)12τ1]}  

 Baldessari10

3n  

Ω(ρ)=[(1ρ)In+ρ1n1n)]  

{1(n+1)ρ1}  

 Halperin9

Table 1 Classes of matrices in(Ωi)  for YiFn×k  as factors of V(Yi)=ΩiΣ  having exchangeable rows, together with conditions Φi()  for Ωi  to be positive definite, where λ  is of order (n×1) , τ1=λ1++λn  and τ2=Σni=1(λiˉλ)2

In short, Theorem 2 catalogs the essentials of requiring that errors on Fn×k  be exchangeable as in Table 1. Both (ˆμ,S)  are affected in having properties discordant with those of the conventional (Y)=Nn×k(μ,I nΣ) . Specifically, requiring that errors be exchangeable may serve to compromise the evidence contained in  with regard to, to be examined subsequently. Details are collected in the following Table 2 as excerpted from Theorem 2.

Scale–invariance

 This concept is central to establishing properties under independence as they may carry over to include exchangeable dependence. To these ends, associate with the classes C={1n,2n,3n}  the values κ[1,γ,(1ρ)]  from the final row of Table 2.

Lemma 2 Let T(S)  be scale invariant, i.e. T(S)=T(cS) for c0 ;and consider these as they may apply in the exchangeable classes C={1n,2n,3n}  of Table 1.

  1. The scale parameters of (νS) are respectively {κΣ;κ[1,γ,(1ρ)}  for the classes of Table 1;
  2. Properties of T(S) are identical to those for {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ;InΣ)} , for each of the exchangeable classes C .

Proof. Conclusion (i) is from Table 2 as noted. The proof for (ii) hinges on scaling properties of Wishart matrices, namely, that R'R=νS , so that if (νS)=Wk(ν,κΣ,0)  as in Table 2, then (νS/κ)=Wk(ν,Σ,0) , the default state. Accordingly, infer that T(S)  behaves as if from (νS)=Wk(ν,κΣ,0)  in the third row of Table 2, and T(S/κ)  behaves as if from (νS/κ)=Wk(ν,Σ,0) . But T  is scale–invariant, so that T(S)=T(S/κ) , as if from {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ;InΣ)} to complete a proof.

Tests for μ

 A complement to estimation is hypothesis testing under exchangeable errors. First consider μ .

For V(Y)=InΣ , recall that

  1. V(ˆμ)=1nΣ ;
  2. [ˆμ,S] are mutually independent; and
  3. Hotelling’s11 test for Η0:μ=μ0 vs Η1:μμ0  utilizes the statistic

T2=n(ˆμμ0)S1(ˆμμ0)   (2)

with distribution (T2)=  T2k(ν,θ) of order k having ν=(n1) degrees of freedom and noncentrality parameter θ . Under the error classes of Table 1, the principal negative finding of this study is the following.

Lemma 3 Consider ˆμ  in the classes C={1n,2n,3n} , together with T2  for testing Η0:μ=μ0 vs Η0:μ=μ0 .

  1. That (ˆμ,S) are independent is met only in the class 3n ;
  2. Replacing n in Equation (2) are reciprocals of (1n+ˉλ),(γn+2ˉλ),(1+(n1)ρn) , and these typically are unknown;
  3. In short, the classical tests for ˆμ are unsupported in the exchangeable error classes C .

 Proof. (i) The independence of (ˆμ,S) , namely Cov(ˆμ,R)=0 , is met only in the class 3n  in Theorem 2, unless λSpn(X0)  for both 1n  and 2n  in Equation (1), in which case λ'PX0=0 . Conclusion (ii) follows from Theorem 2 and Table 2, and Conclusion (iii) follows in summary.

Item

1n  

2n  

3n  

(ˆμ)   N1×k(μ,(1n+ˉλ)Σ)   N1×k(μ,(γn+2ˉλ)Σ)   N1×k(μ,(1+(n1)nρ)  
(R)   Nn×k(0,PX0Σ)   Nn×k(0,PX0γΣ)   Nn×k(0,PX0(1ρ)Σ)  
(νS)   Wk(ν,Σ,0)   Wk(ν,γΣ,0)   Wk(ν,(1ρ),Σ,0)  
E(S)   Σ   γΣ   (1ρ)Σ  

Table 2 Properties of R=PX0Y  and, νS=RR where PX0=[In1n1n1n] ; moreover, the distribution Wk(ν,Σ,0)  is central Wishart of order k , having ν=(n1)  degrees of freedom and scale parameters Σ

Inferences for Σ

Estimation

The dispersion matrix {V(Yi)=ω iiΣ}  within the rows of Y , and the cross–covariances {Cov(Yi,Yj)=ω ijΣ}  between rows, all depend on Σ . In addition to properties of S=R'R/(n1)  as reported in Theorem 2 and Table 2, let [S1,S2,S3]  be the error mean squares for the classes C={1n,2n,3n} . Essential features are that {(ν,Si)=Wk(ν,κiΣ,0)}  for ν=(n1)  and κi[1,γ,(1ρ)]  for the classes C . Thus S1  is unbiased for Σ , whereas (S2,S3)  are biased by the factors [γ,(1ρ)] . Moreover, as measures of scatter, the generalized variances are related as |S2|=γk|S1| and |S3|=(1ρ)k|S1| , whereas the condition numbers {Cnd(Si);i=1,2,3}  are identical.

Hypothesis tests

 Five tests, historically devised and subsequently used under {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ;InΣ)}  are listed in Table 3, to include statements of hypotheses, commonly used test statistics, and references.

As to exchangeable dependence, it remains to identify those of Table 3 that remain viable in the exchangeable classes of Table 1.

Theorem 3 Consider the tests for Σ  as in Table 3 for the classes C={1n,2n,3n}  of Table 1, in lieu of the conventional {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ,InΣ)} .

(i) All statistics of Table 3 are scale–invariant;

(ii) For the classes C , properties of the tests of Table 3 are identical to those for {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ,InΣ)} , independently of κ[1,γ,(1ρ)] .

 Proof As before κ[1,γ,(1ρ)] , are the scale parameters for S  in {1n,2n,3n} . Conclusion (i) is apparent, where for H5:S0=SΣ01 , we find on rescaling ΥκΥ  that Sκ2S  and Σ0κ2Σ0 , leaving S0  to be scale–invariant. Conclusion (ii) follows on applying conclusion (i) in order to verify the scale–invariance and applicability of Lemma 2.

Remark 2 These tests accordingly exhibit genuinely nonparametric features, in that each applies for structured distributions in the classes {1n,2n,3n}  beyond that of the conventional {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ,InΣ)} .

Exact distributions of the Table 3 statistics {ui}  rarely are known, supported instead by approximations, namely, {uiui=ciϕ(ui);ϕ[ui,lnui]} , such that (ui)χ2νi , namely, approximately chi–squared having νi  degrees of freedom. Details are found in Sections 7.2.1 and 7.2.2 of Rencher12 and 7.3 of Morrison.13 These details are omitted here in the interests of brevity, but suffice to say, those approximations all apply in the exchangeable error classes of this study.

Item

H0:Σ=  

 Test statistic (ui)

 Reference

H1  

σ2[(1ρ)Ik+ρJk]  

[|S||s2[(1r)Ik+rJk]|]  

R7.2.2  

H2  

σ2[(1ρ)Ik+ρJk]  

[|S||s2[(1r)Ik+rJk]|]  

R7.2.3  
H3  

[Ik+1kλ+λ1kˉλJk]  

(κ)κ|CSC|(trCSC)κ  

M7.3  

H4  

Diag(Σ11,,Σrr)  

|S||S11||S22||Srr|.  

R7.4.2  

H5  

Σ0  

ν[ln|SΣ01|+tr(SΣ01)k]  

R7.2.1  

Table 3 Selected hypotheses regarding Σ ; commonly used test statistics; references R to Rencher12 and M to Morrison13
Legend κ=(k1) ; S=[sij]{s2=1kki=1;r=[1k(k1)ijsij]/s2  and C'[κ×k]  consists of κ  linear contrasts.

Correlation analyses

Here sample entities depend on S=[sij] , corresponding parameters are identical functions of Σ . To these ends take Y=[Y1,Y2]  of orders {(n×s),(n×t);st} , and partition S(k×k)  as

S=[S11S12S21S22][IsGG'It];G=S1211S12S1222(s×t)    (3)

 Then {rij=sij/sii12sjj12}  are simple correlations; the singular values σ(G)  are the canonical correlations ϱ=[ϱ1,ϱ2,...ϱs]  and the multiple correlations are defined at s=1. Again note that these were derived historically and subsequently used under the independence model {(Y){Nn×k(1  nμ,InΣ)} . The question again arises as to whether exchangeable errors may have compromised correlative evidence in S regarding Σ .Results to the contrary are the substance of the following.

Theorem 4 Given (Y) in the exchangeable classes C={1n,2n,3n} ; consider effects on correlation analyses as prescribed under (Y*)=Nn×k(1  nμ,I nΣ) .

(i) Then for all (Y)C , the entities {rij}  and their properties are identical to those for (Y*) ;

(ii) In like manner, for all (Y)C , properties of multiple and canonical correlations are identical to those for (Y*) ;

(iii) In short, conventional correlation analyses are preserved despite requiring that errors be exchangeable in C .

 Proof. The claims again rest on the fact that sample correlations are scale–invariant functions of Y and S . Conclusions (i), (ii) and (iii) now follow from Lemma 2.

Factor analyses (FA's)

Within the scope of psychometric, sociometric, and humanistic endeavors, the FA  paradigm postulates that Σ=Λ'Λ+Ψ  such that elements of {Λ(s×k);s<k}  comprise the factor loadings, and Ψ=Diag(ψ1,...,ψk)  the unique variances. In particular, the diagonal elements of Σ  are {σii=h2i+ψi;i=1,...,k}  where

 {h2i=λ2i1+λ2i2+...+λ2is;i=1,...,k}  

 are the communalities. The analysis begins with S=^Λ'ˆΛ+Ψ , typically utilizing maximum likelihood estimation as in Chapter 13 of Rencher.12 An initial solution ˆΛ  eventually is rotated so as to achieve further desirable properties, since the loadings Λ  are non–unique.

For the case that {(Y){Nn×k(1nμ,InΣ)} , the normal–theory likelihood ratio for testing H0:Σ=Λ'Λ+Ψ  vs H1:ΣΛ'Λ+Ψ  is

[n2k+4s+116]ln[^Λ'ˆΛ+ˆΨ||S|]   (4)

 and referred to upper critical values of the approximating distribution, namely, χ2v with v=[(ks)2ks/2]  as in expression (13.47) of Rencher.12 These were derived historically and used subsequently for the case that {(Y){Nn×k(1nμ,InΣ)} .

The extent to which the foregoing algorithm may be applied more generally, to encompass exchangeable errors, is examined in the following.

Theorem 5 Consider the statistic (4) for testing the FA  model in the classes C={1n,2n,3n} , as developed and prescribed for (Y*)=Nn×k(1  nμ,I nΣ) . Then

(i) For each distribution (Y)C , properties of tests using (4) are identical to those under (Y*) .

 Proof. As the statistic (4) is scale–invariant, the conclusion again follows from Lemma 2.

Conclusion

In retrospect, taking the conventional V(Y)=InΣ  remains an enduring artefact of statistical practice. Exchangeable dependence, where V(Y)=ΩΣ , is a radical departure, albeit on occasion as being itself fundamental to correct statistical practice. Foundations trace to Johnson3; extensions encompass matrices in Fn×k  and stochastic sequences in various domains. Representations for two–way arrays include (i) functions of iid scalars as in Aldous DJ6 and the related studies14,15; and (ii) as limits of finite exchangeable sequences as in Ivanoff BG.16 for rectangular arrays. Marshall & Olkin17 demonstrated that Schur–concave joint density functions on n  are exchangeable; Shaked & Tong18 superimposed partial orderings on exchangeable arrays; and Seneta19 sought to approximate joint probabilities of equicorrelated vectors in n  in terms of marginal probabilities and the correlation parameter ρ .Functional limit theorems for row and column arrays were studied in Ivanoff BG.16 Kallenberg20 examined ergodic properties of exchangeable arrays generated as multivariate samples from a stationary process. In reliability studies, an exchangeable array is considered in Spizzichino F, et al.21 as deriving from a hierarchical model having multivariate negative aging. In addition, a multivariate lognormal frailty model for exchangeable failure time data, having marginal Weibull lifetime distributions, is considered in Stefanescu C.22

Alternative to our studies is equation (1) of Arnold7 having the linear structure of our model  but differing in dispersion. Arnold’s approach differs in reducing his model to a canonical form. Nonetheless, Arnold’s assessment of ˆμ serves to confirm our findings in Lemma 3. On the other hand, our examination of, its sample version S , and other second–moment properties, find no parallel in Arnold’s studies. In continuation of those studies, Roy & Fonseca23 sought to extend equation (1), considered as a two–level array, to encompass three levels.

Antecedents to the present study include Ω(γ,λ) in Table 1 from Baldessari10 in lieu of σ2In  in the Analysis of Variance; and characterized in24–26 as the class of all within-subject dispersion matrices preserving the validity of conventional F –tests in the analysis of repeated measurements. Moreover, structured matrices of an earlier vintage include the Euclidean distance matrices of Gower,27 namely D(λ)=[D+1 nλ'+λ1 n'] , with D  diagonal, having applications to linear inference as found in Farebrother.28

In summary, our studies have sought to cover a diversity of topics in multivariate statistical inference from a further perspective, namely, that of exchangeable errors. But at the same time, to acknowledge and to pursue the prospects that requiring exchangeability may serve to compromised the meanings attributed to sample evidence. Specifically, references abound for the vast array of multivariate normal procedures described here as classical, including those amenable to selected exchangeable distributions as shown here. Of the many topics not covered, interested readers are encouraged to undertake further investigations using and adding to the analytical principles demonstrated here.

Acknowledgments

None.

Conflicts of interest

The author declare that there is no conflicts of interest.

Funding

None.

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